Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 2.092199 2.198367 2.312089 2.443918 2.593801 2.760519 2.962355
2025-10-05 2.001495 2.141291 2.297520 2.487758 2.717175 2.990741 3.351641
2025-10-12 1.953074 2.118608 2.309868 2.552388 2.860240 3.251907 3.815802
2025-10-19 1.879708 2.057720 2.268042 2.542341 2.903736 3.386995 4.135270
2025-10-26 1.825754 2.014491 2.241889 2.546059 2.960957 3.543456 4.517210
2025-11-02 1.757108 1.948428 2.181830 2.499218 2.942320 3.585905 4.724898
2025-11-09 1.710136 1.906154 2.148419 2.483677 2.963705 3.688109 5.060655
2025-11-16 1.669813 1.869828 2.119949 2.471681 2.987394 3.795190 5.438476
2025-11-23 1.631924 1.834613 2.090647 2.455765 3.002542 3.888918 5.823020
2025-11-30 1.609720 1.818218 2.084812 2.471567 3.066309 4.074541 6.503604
2025-12-07 1.558198 1.761956 2.023230 2.403805 2.992778 4.002290 6.498290
2025-12-14 1.528032 1.732502 1.996528 2.384988 2.995808 4.072588 6.925599
2025-12-21 1.491561 1.694545 1.958025 2.348624 2.970327 4.090660 7.235012
2025-12-28 1.484746 1.695201 1.971956 2.390141 3.076954 4.389671 8.766417
2026-01-04 1.484296 1.704049 1.997271 2.450103 3.221847 4.810112 11.735229
2026-01-11 1.462002 1.682669 1.979081 2.441509 3.243660 4.957156 13.799779
2026-01-18 1.444860 1.667674 1.969252 2.445264 3.288262 5.172650 17.718563
2026-01-25 1.414637 1.634016 1.931545 2.402633 3.241593 5.140768 18.902772
2026-02-01 1.394397 1.613526 1.912149 2.388526 3.248508 5.257047 23.941324
2026-02-08 1.376102 1.595223 1.895285 2.377610 3.260565 5.392158 34.050336
2026-02-15 1.357630 1.576212 1.876774 2.363058 3.264103 5.504670 57.264577
2026-02-22 1.348323 1.569583 1.876034 2.377584 3.327348 5.823414 NaN
2026-03-01 1.318004 1.533108 1.830413 2.315371 3.227893 5.586882 NaN